Korona 0 Report post Posted April 14, 2008 NAFTA has been better for the US than for its "partners". I think that's the rub. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Accele 0 Report post Posted April 14, 2008 UK GDP per capita rises above that of the USA lol, very simplistic definition of wealth to make that argument. This is what you want to look at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...PPP)_per_capita Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feuersturm 0 Report post Posted April 14, 2008 (edited) Last year. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...account_balance Thats kind of bad... UK is near last and US is dead last. We rank 14th :D ...in the positive? (in million $US and converted equivilent) 1 China: 363,300 14 Canada: 28,460 162 UK: -111,000 164 USA: -747,100 Edited April 14, 2008 by Feuersturm Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eradicator 0 Report post Posted April 14, 2008 North America will fall behind if we don't resolve trade issues between the 3 countries. We do have "Free Trade", on paper, but in reality that is far from it. Example: How about you guys stop restricting access to US TV, movies, and other cultural goods and then we'll talk about how free trade only "works for one country". These things get violated all the time, unfortunately. It's too bad, NAFTA has been good for everyone. There are no restrictions on access to US TV or movies, trust me on that. What I assume you are referring to is Canadian content laws on cable tv and how that means we deserve tarrifs on trade goods. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Korona 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 Acelle you are linking to estimates for 2007... The BBC report is talking about 2008. Addressing your line "Actually I'm referring to real GDP/capita, where the EU still lags behind, significantly." You're mistaken, at least as far as Western Europe goes. http://www.swivel.com/graphs/show/1163922 Check out this graph, you can see that the economies of the US and UK were nearing parity since the early '00s. If you want to say that GDP/Captira is a bad way to reflect wealth, then why did you bring it up? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Accele 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 What I assume you are referring to is Canadian content laws on cable tv and how that means we deserve tarrifs on trade goods. I'm not saying you "deserve" anything. I'm a huge proponent of free trade, I don't think either of us should be subsidizing or protecting our industries, cultural, wood or otherwise. Acelle you are linking to estimates for 2007... The BBC report is talking about 2008. I assure you the UK's GDP/capita PPP did not jump $10,000 in the last year. If you want to say that GDP/Captira is a bad way to reflect wealth, then why did you bring it up? :blink: Ok, first you need to understand that GDP/capita in nominal terms and GDP/capita in real terms and GDP/capita PPP are all different metrics. The numbers I linked say, in the most basic terms possible, that the average American has about $10,000 (using the World Bank data) more "stuff" than the average Brit. Last year. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...account_balance Thats kind of bad... UK is near last and US is dead last. We rank 14th biggrin.gif ...in the positive? (in million $US and converted equivilent) 1 China: 363,300 14 Canada: 28,460 162 UK: -111,000 164 USA: -747,100 The US trade balance was something like -$900,000 a couple years ago. Then the dollar started to decline, and the deficit went with it. It's evened off recently, but like I said earlier will probably keep declining once this current recession/not recession is over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mr.48 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 The EU had a weed reserve of 100 days... it is now down to a 40 day stock. Oh my god, the pothead riots will consume Europe! P.S. Yes I'm still alive, I was just out of action for a bit because of exams. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Korona 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 Actually I'm referring to real GDP/capita, where the EU still lags behind, significantly. This is what you want to look at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...apita Ok, first you need to understand that GDP/capita in nominal terms and GDP/capita in real terms and GDP/capita PPP are all different metrics. The Oxford Economics quote I'm championing accepts that PPP isn't on the same level as the US. However, you're the one floating between PPP and real GDP when it suits you. Don't give me the "I'm right and understand the issue, you're a retard who doesn't understand basic concepts" bollocks again :P Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Accele 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 What else would I be referring to? The link that was posted simply shows that nominal GDP/capita is higher, which is absolutely meaningless. Britons still have about $10,000 less "stuff" than Americans. About 25% less, in fact. Look at CIA.gov, for example, they don't even give nominal GDP figures because it tells you nothing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Korona 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 Ugh you brought up real GDP/Capita, and I said that the EU isn't nearly as behind as you claimed. I can't find figures for real GDP but since it's just the nominal GDP adjusted for inflation, I doubt it would make much difference. (Inflation in the US is way higher than in the UK anyway so if anything it would help my case!) GDP per capita tells you a lot. It's the best way to compare the relative international strength of an economy, how much wealth it generates versus other countries. Domestically the different prices of good fluctuates, but I was never claiming otherwise. As I will say again, YOU bought up real GDP, not me. I never said PPP was equal in the US and EU. We have the NHS and stuff instead, so... :P Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Accele 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 Fine, whatever, if there was any confusion I was referring to GDP/capita PPP. GDP per capita tells you a lot. It's the best way to compare the relative international strength of an economy Uh... no, nominal GDP is probably the worst way to compare internationally. Inflation in the US is way higher than in the UK anyway so if anything it would help my case! No it isn't. The US inflation rate has spiked ridiculously in the past few months and it's still lower than the UK's (actually I've seen one that puts it at like .1% higher). Historically it's like half of the UK's inflation rate, regardless of overall, CPI, core, whatever. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Korona 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 Pft the Fed basically lies when they publish those figures. They don't include food or fuel in inflation figures. They are a joke. http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/economic-f...ation-rate.html (check out the the bit in bold) Why is GDP the worst way to compare the international strength of an economy? I'm talking about purchasing power for stuff like oil. GDP charts the value of the economy. That's pretty important. It doesn't tell you the price of a loaf of bread, but neither does the fed :P Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Accele 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 Pft the Fed basically lies when they publish those figures. They don't include food or fuel in inflation figures. They are a joke. Right, back to the time honored tradition of "If those stats don't agree with me then they're lying." That article you posted simply asserts that "the Feds are lying" without backing it up, they just keep mentioning an Economist article which obviously I don't have access to. I did a little googling and it appears that they're referring to the Fed decision to not include housing in the inflation rate (which personally makes perfect sense to me, since housing isn't like oil or food or plasma TVs or cars, but that's beside the point), but that doesn't do much to buttress your point, since the system is the same everywhere. There isn't secret 16.7% inflation in the US (I can assure you of that by going to any random store) but no inflation in the UK or all Europe or wherever. Second, if you were to include the housing figures in the inflation rate it would actually be declining now anyway, since housing prices have fallen so much. It doesn't tell you the price of a loaf of bread, but neither does the fed The Fed puts out Inflation and Core Inflation statistics. So yeah, they do tell you that. Core inflation is the one without food and oil. Why is GDP the worst way to compare the international strength of an economy? I'm talking about purchasing power for stuff like oil. GDP charts the value of the economy. That's pretty important. It says nothing of the differences in wealth between nations. For example, Ben Bernanke has suggested that due to the import-heavy nature of the US economy the average American has gained $10,000 in the last 20 years that isn't reflected in GDP figures. You can't just look at nominal figures and say "well, this country is better off than that country," you're only getting a partial picture of the state of the economy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Korona 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 The inflation thing is pointing out that the cost of food is going up by ridiculous leaps and bounds. For example corn has gone up from around $3.30 a year ago http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/06/opinion/06tue4.html to about $6 http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080403/corn_at_6.html and oil costs have roughly doubled in the same period. This gets compounded by the weak dollar. People want to buy US corn to make biofuels, and US companies need to pay a premium for their oil. Net result is a huge hike in food and petrol costs. Have you not seen the increases at the pump and the store yourself? Have you been living under a rock? The issue with the Fed rates is that for the "baseline" inflation they can add in random companies to balance the figures, so they say "oh yeh food and fuel is up, but look! buttons are down! and so are cars!" This mitigates the increase in the cost of living against irrelevant deflation in strugglling sectors. Again, they skirt around the cost of living rise and don't paint an honest picture. Yes the GDP doesn't tell you about the intricasies of the individual circumstances of individual citizens, its a broad brush macro look at an economy. I'm not saying that it's the best measure of all types of wealth ever, but it's not useless. It gives a good idea of how the economy is performing in relation to other economies, i.e. where it's standing is on the world stage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BoB 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 Exactly, GDP is the best international comparison of an economy. it LITERALLY values everything produced in that economy. Whether one circuit has similar goods cheaper than another is irrelevant, because it's saying that even though I my spend more on an iPod, if we both bought international oil with that money instead then i'd get more. Korona, re fixing the inflation measures... we all do it. There was an interesting article in the Times last year around the budget showing that an "average" middle class family is facing inflation of around 6%pa I believe. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Korona 0 Report post Posted April 15, 2008 Very true, there is good reason to be sceptical before taking statistics at face value. Esepcially government ones. They have a lot riding on stats. They need to do everything they can to make them look as good as possible. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mehman 0 Report post Posted April 16, 2008 For crying out loud Accele, is it not clear to you that the problem is far from a small bump and a rather huge problem? You're downsizing it so much, as if it's nothing to worry about, just a normal thing. It is far from normal, what we're facing here is a huge decrease in living standards in most of the developed world. Stocks are falling like crap and everything being done to avoid a 1930s depression isn't helping a whole lot. Shit is still hitting the fan. And you want to make it look as if it's pird poop hitting it. It's not. It's just simply not. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Accele 0 Report post Posted April 16, 2008 Just because you don't like me saying so doesn't make it true. It's certainly abnormal, no denying that, but "a huge decrease in the living standards in most of the developed world" is not going to happen. At least not from the sub-prime lending crisis and its aftershocks. Like I said oil is the obvious concern in the future, that could do it. I believe they're predicting one more big housing market dip over the summer and then sustained recovery, although I don't remember the article I read that in to bring it up and check their reasoning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Korona 0 Report post Posted April 16, 2008 'They' say? *phew* \o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/\o/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
flyby 0 Report post Posted April 17, 2008 "They also say that it is highly probable that the US will slip in a similar, long lasting crisis, comparable to what happened to Japan in the 90's..." Predictions should be based upon recent data and not upon what you hope it will be. Wishful thinking is not on its place here. I know a lot of people really hope it isn't going to be bad, but so far there is no indication that the crisis intensity is slowing down. On the contrary... it is still accelerating: unemployment rises, foreclosing still rises, bankruptcies are still increasing, governmental deficit is rising against all expectations, etc... In the best scenario, you will have the first slowdown results by the end of the years, what doesn't mean that the situation will be back to normal... There are several well known economist, like Greenspan etc, that warn for the most severe crisis since 1929. In combination with the current developments in China and India, causing huge strain on all sorts of natural resources, this combinations of financial crisis (with increasing systemic failure risk) and sharply rising commodity prices is going to give a serious blow on “the American way of life”. I fear there is no magic that will turn around the world economy away from the cliffs… Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feuersturm 0 Report post Posted April 17, 2008 Well, up here, the place im working at is a major producer of Pasta (lasagna and such) for Safeway, Stouffers, Discover Cuisine, ect.)...and we are already feeling abit of a pinch. First of all, their payments for our products are getting later and later, and the amount they buy from us is getting less and less. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feuersturm 0 Report post Posted April 21, 2008 (edited) Appears that chain reaction thing that Flyby was talking about is showing. The UK Bank is having some troubles now.... Edited April 21, 2008 by Feuersturm Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eradicator 0 Report post Posted April 21, 2008 There was a widely publicized incident (Little Rock?) of a UK bank having major problems quite a while back, but what exactly are you referring to (article link?)? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
flyby 0 Report post Posted April 21, 2008 I think this : http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home What you see here, are exceptional measures to counter exceptional problems... Both FED and BOE are jumping in to keep the financial world upright By swapping worthless paper into loans so that the banks can continue to pay their debts It is an attempt to prevent a domino collapse of the financial institutions. It indicates that the situation is far more serious then most "optimist" let you believe... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feuersturm 0 Report post Posted April 21, 2008 Flyby got it again, but I was reading a BBC article about it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites