Bear Stearns

[Eradicator 0]

O Rly?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7300017.stm

It appears I was off by a day. Obviously a lot can still happen today, but the Dow is up 200+ already. The 12,000 mark is a huge support, it'll likely keep bouncing off that until some steady confidence returns.

what does it take to really piss off the American people?

Got to effect us. Good or bad, we're pretty resilient as long as we're wealthy. You can say whatever you like about Bush or Reagan or Bush Sr. or even Clinton or whoever, but these men have presided over the US at its most prosperous, and kept the lives of the average American better than almost any other country can imagine.

Well if you compare yourself to Russia or Pakistan or [X country in turmoil here] then, yes, but at a certain point you kind of have to expect better of yourself and of your leaders. If America wasn't a great country compared to 90% of the complete shit on this earth then none of us would give a flying fuck that the Republicans are fucking it all up, but it is, so we do. The lives of the average American are actually worse on a whole than many of their first world counter parts, but the causes of that are arguable. This is the good old "well at least Bush hasn't destroyed the universe" argument. You also assume that those men had everything to do with the prosperity of the times, which is more than a little naive. Sure, they had an impact, but this is the same garbage like "Reagan brought down the USSR"... no... he didn't.

[Count von Phoib 0]

What?

Fact: Everything bad that happened in the late 70's is Jimmy Carter's fault.

Yes it is clear Jimmy Carter is to blame :P

[Accele 0]

And I also see that you didn't really read my post.

I did skip it a little bit, sorry. Here:

 

I think zombies could kill werewolves

 

Good?

 

The lives of the average American are actually worse on a whole than many of their first world counter parts

That's really just untrue. Even if you go by HDI, which ludicrously includes education and GDP, the US is only at #12 I believe, only behind much smaller and more homogeneous countries.

 

Edit:

 

Hahahaha and all it took was the Fed to slash interest rates from 3.5% to 2%! Hooray the economy is save-ed!

No one is saying saved, just predicting a market recovery. And it goes beyond the Fed cutting rates, although that certainly helps. Biggest factor was probably better than expected earnings from Goldman Sachs and Lehman, coupled with the support that 12000 gives. Every time it's hit 12000 it takes off within a few days, it's mostly a psychological thing.

Edited March 18, 2008 by Accele

[Rattuskid 0]

Werewolves are only dangerous during the full moon. Assuming you have survived the first night, you then have a full month to prepare for the next attack. With a zombie invsion you would need to defend aganst it until they are all dead.

 

Who is to say werewolves are only dangerous in wolf form? If you regularly disembowel and shred children in your monthly meals, it has to do something to you mentally.

 

For a comparison, women are only truly dangerous once a month, so do you let your guard down the other 30 or so days?

 

Thats because Bear Stearns isn't your average joe Bank, if you can even call them a bank. Generally, when they make headlines in anything other than the money section something terrible has happened :P

 

 

I've heard of investment banks before, be it through advertising (T.D. Waterhouse) or stock market analyist shows (Brookshire Halfaway). I think one bank collapsed, possibly through bad investing on the part of management (since you know, it's the same shitty market and the OTHERS are all still here) and people are trying to portray this as part of a broader crisis in the market, because it's something easy to point to when a lot of complex issues are involved.

 

Sort of like how the '29 stock market crash didn't CAUSE the Great Depression, but people will cite it in common-knowledge cause and effect parallels.

[BlckWyerve 0]

Meh... short term feelings. The last economic shock that really affected everyone significantly was the energy crisis, thank you Jimmy Carter. It's not like people lives are getting thrown around.

 

Lolwut, you give Jimmy too much credit. He was far too worthless to have any sort of impact like that.

[Korona 0]

Acelle, you think the rally would have occured if the Fed haden't slashed rates?

[Accele 0]

Acelle, you think the rally would have occured if the Fed haden't slashed rates?

Certainly not this big, but it would have rallied significantly regardless. Like I said, 12000 is a huge support. More importantly, Lehman and Goldman and Sach's better than expected earnings gives a pretty clear indicator that the Bear Stearns collapse was an isolated incident, brought on by policies specific to Bear Stearns and not the industry as a whole.

 

Lolwut, you give Jimmy too much credit. He was far too worthless to have any sort of impact like that.

I will blame whatever I want on Jimmy Carter, dammit.

[BlckWyerve 0]

Jimmy Carter did 9/11.

[Korona 0]

Well I'm afraid I disagree, given how shakey the rally was, even after the interest rates buff. The unexpected good news from those two investment banks helped too, but I don't think you are claiming to have called that, nor that people being pleased by losses is a good sign for the overall economy?

 

 

Looking ahead a few weeks, yes there is a bump now, but the idea that the economic prospects are looking up following this news just doesn't wash. An interest rate cut to 2.25% is just what investors in dollars didn't need. If I had dollars I would be selling them, the graph ain't pretty:

 

http://www.x-rates.com/d/EUR/USD/graph30.html

 

Yes that is around 7% of the value wiped out in 30 days. Couple that to an even worse return from lending now, and the reasons to keep dollars are evaporating. The Fed reduced the economic exposure to a collapse of the credit markets but it has just opened itself up even wider to a collapse of US spending power.

[Accele 0]

Well I'm afraid I disagree, given how shakey the rally was, even after the interest rates buff.

420 points is shaky? What's a strong rally for you?

 

but I don't think you are claiming to have called that,

I didn't call that at all. I based the "call" mainly on the support that 12000 gives and the market anticipating a rate cut. The GS and Lehman reports just compounded it.

 

Looking ahead a few weeks, yes there is a bump now, but the idea that the economic prospects are looking up following this news just doesn't wash. An interest rate cut to 2.25% is just what investors in dollars didn't need. If I had dollars I would be selling them, the graph ain't pretty:

 

http://www.x-rates.com/d/EUR/USD/graph30.html

 

Yes that is around 7% of the value wiped out in 30 days. Couple that to an even worse return from lending now, and the reasons to keep dollars are evaporating. The Fed reduced the economic exposure to a collapse of the credit markets but it has just opened itself up even wider to a collapse of US spending power.

We've been pursuing this policy for a couple years now. The goal is to decrease the value of the dollar so that we spend less overseas. We've been over this already. It led to a nearly 10% decrease in the current account deficit in '07 alone. And it appears that oil is finally showing some demand price elasticity, meaning that increases in oil won't be offsetting (or at least will be offsetting less) the otherwise huge trade gains as gas consumption changes.

[Feuersturm 0]

I think devaluing your own economy is suicide.

[Korona 0]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7303961.stm

I'm basing my claim that the rally was shakey on the fact that markets started off falling by 100 points, before they began to rally. The same thing happened last time too. An initial fall, followed by a later rally. Confidence is at a low ebb, even with unprecidented rates cuts. One major bank down, I don't see why the economy is looking more healthy than it was two months ago, if anything it's sickening, surely?

 

I agree that a gradual devaluation of the dollar is a good idea, but don't you find the current rate of inflation alarming? A collapse in the value of the dollar means higher oil prices which means domestic goods become a lot more espensive too. Of course fuel isn't even in the official inflation figures, but it will be a driving force behind inflation as the weakening dollar bites harder and harder.

[Mehman 0]

Jimmy Carter did 9/11.

 

-Jimmy Carter +Jews

[Accele 0]

I think devaluing your own economy is suicide.

That's because you have no idea the difference between devaluing currency and "devaluing the economy," apparently.

I'm basing my claim that the rally was shakey on the fact that markets started off falling by 100 points, before they began to rally. The same thing happened last time too. An initial fall, followed by a later rally.

People were expecting a larger cut. Of course it dropped initially. As your linked article put it "cooler heads prevailed" and the rally began.

 

 

I agree that a gradual devaluation of the dollar is a good idea, but don't you find the current rate of inflation alarming?

Not really. Devaluing the dollar had to be done, and it was necessarily going to lead to inflation. I believe the core inflation numbers aren't all that bad either, although I don't have any stats on that off hand.

[Andre27 0]

Jimmy Carter did 9/11.

 

-Jimmy Carter +Jews

 

Don't forget the commies and the kitchen sink.

 

 

[Mehman 0]

I think devaluing your own economy is suicide.

 

Not really. A certain country whose name rhymes with Mernany did that and I believe it paid off their debts.

Edited March 20, 2008 by MehMan

[Korona 0]

Hyperinflation? Yeah that was a bucket of laughs for Joe and Josephine average German. Saying massive inflation is good because it wipes out your debts is like saying a house fire is good because it got rid of the ant infestation.

[Mehman 0]

I didn't say it was good or bad.

[Korona 0]

Hyperinflation is unequivocably bad, except for the few individuals who have massive debt secured against a great deal of assets and material wealth. It basically crashes the economy, so you need a lot of wealth to ride out the bad times in comfort.

[Mehman 0]

But the debt was paid.

 

And yes, in the end it is bad, very bad. But it can pay off a debt. But that won't help because the debt is probably also inflated. You'd just end up with Zimbabwe.

Edited March 20, 2008 by MehMan

[Accele 0]

I don't know the specifics of the German experience, but yeah, if a country today said that they're going to undertake a policy of hyperinflation I'd be extremely, extremely concerned.

 

In other news, it appears the debate about whether the crisis is over yet is on:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080320/23725629.html

[Count von Phoib 0]

Hyperinflation destroys every economy.

 

Try imagening $10,000 for a gallon of fuel at the pump... :unsure:

 

Anyways, this made me smile :)

[BoB 0]

OECD forecasts 0.0% US 2nd Quarter economic growth

[Rattuskid 0]

Jimmy Carter did 9/11.

 

-Jimmy Carter +Jews

 

Don't forget the commies and the kitchen sink.

 

9/11 was caused by Dale Ernhart flying the Space Shuttle Columbia into Hurrican Katrina. End of fucking story.

[Accele 0]

What do Dale Earnhardt and Pink Floyd have in common?

 

 

 

 

 

Their last big hit was The Wall.