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North Korea Performs Second Nuclear Test

#1 User is offline   Count von Phoib 

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Posted 25 May 2009 - 08:46 AM

8 weeks after North Korea performed a ballistic missile test of their sattelite carrier rocket/ballistic missile, North Korea has announced it has performed a second nuclear test.

QUOTE (CNN)
North Korea has conducted its second nuclear test, the country's state news agency announced Monday.

The announcement came little more than an hour after the U.S. Geological Survey reported a magnitude 4.7 seismic disturbance at the site of North Korea's first nuclear test -- in October 2006.

North Korea's Korean Central News Agency said Monday's test was conducted "as part of the measures to bolster up its nuclear deterrent for self-defense in every way."

"We are gravely concerned by North Korea's claims," the U.S. State Department said in a statement.

So much for the six party talks.
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#2 User is offline   Rattuskid 

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Posted 25 May 2009 - 09:28 AM

Y'know, I'm starting to agree with some pessimistic claims that the UN/US should either seek to ban all nukes, everywhere, or start parking them everywhere as a deterrent.
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#3 User is offline   Kaiser_Smeghead 

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Posted 25 May 2009 - 09:48 AM

I am curious to hear about how powerful this particular weapon was since the first one ended up as being a bit of a dud as far as nuclear weapons go.

I am also curious to see how things will go from here, especially since Obama is in the white house.
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#4 User is offline   IconOfEvi 

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Posted 25 May 2009 - 11:10 PM

They're getting desperate. This is one of their last bargaining chips to blackmail more aid/concessions.

Also, what did you expect Kaiser? Hot air:
QUOTE
North Korea will not find security and respect through threats and illegal weapons. We will work with our friends and allies to stand up to this behaviour and we will redouble our efforts toward a more robust international non-proliferation regime that all countries have responsibilities to meet.

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#5 User is offline   Korona 

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Posted 25 May 2009 - 11:46 PM

Fission bombs suck. The blast yield is puny:
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nucl...p;contentId=367

20kt (the upper estimate for the blast yield), barely encompasses the Mall.

Compare that to this:

http://www.strangepersons.com/images/content/135663.jpg

The North Koreans have had tons of artillery pointed as Seoul for years. All this really changes is that now a part of Korea is irradiated. Way to go you stupid wankers.
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#6 User is offline   IconOfEvi 

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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:20 AM

Oh, they also fired two missiles just to spite Ms Rice at the UN. Honestly, what is she thinking? She says they will suffer, there will be punishment - but there WON'T be. She knows it - if she meant it, she'd be calling for a concrete plan to deal with the North once and for all, instead of saying there will be punishment, which of course means they will talk tough at the Talks, then NK will threaten, which will make the West capitulate and send more aid, to be stolen for the regime's sustainability. Speaking of that, its my theory all of this, its an attempt to prop the regime up, both inside and out, before a succession crisis - Kim has gotten really weak, and is likely to die soon. And unlike Kim Il Sung, he hasn't groomed a successor in particular.

And 'Murika and company are falling straight for it.

Though it doesn't help South Korea isn't any more phased - they still think in terms of kin, that the North can't be all that bad. The cozy lie they built for themselves is sickening to say the least, especially considering how many defectors/refugees they have coming from the North, and how they continue to not heed their words. They'll only realize they're in deep shit when somewhere the South is a radioactive wasteland, and around 20,000 shells a minute (I'm pretty sure that's the correct number) are landing on Seoul. Only Japan is taking the North seriously.
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#7 User is offline   Korona 

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Posted 27 May 2009 - 11:05 AM

They are going nuts right now, threatening war and stuff. This is crazy. The SKs have to call the NKs bluff here, but who knows how they will react to that? They seem pretty pissed off right now.
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#8 User is offline   BlckWyerve 

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Posted 27 May 2009 - 06:35 PM

Why are asians so crazy
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#9 User is offline   spyvspy 

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Posted 27 May 2009 - 07:21 PM

I guess SK could always surrender to China first, as a preemptive measure. NK is just China's starved, dehydrated, rabid rottweiler tied to a tree in the front yard, and they know damned well it needs the one bullet solution.

This post has been edited by spyvspy: 27 May 2009 - 07:22 PM

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#10 User is offline   Acevetren 

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Posted 27 May 2009 - 09:18 PM

You just wait though even with China's support the western nations will just glass em. Britain,USA, Canada, France,and Germany will blow that little communist piece of shit out of the water. laugh.gif They only stand a chance if the Russia intervenes which I suspect is unlikely. That Kim Jon IL or what ever is one big communist prick! laugh.gif
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#11 User is offline   Rattuskid 

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Posted 27 May 2009 - 11:57 PM

Even SK forces alone, without the US troops stationed there, could repel a serious invasion by the North. The regime has no modern armor to speak of, the majority of it's military bogged down tending to gulags and watching itself for fears of mass defectors... and well it's mostly a starving deterrent to a 2003 style regime change.

NK could put a hurt on the South, but not for more than a few days tops, and not without vaporizing all their armed forces in the process. Think Tet without reserves, and without a support network. They have preyed on international aide and the South's compliance long enough to turn their little fort into a fledgling launch-bed for really crappy atom bombs on really crappy rockets, which they seem to keep firing in 'tests' in the direction of America. The truth is though, they're paranoia may have the limited number of bombs pointed at SK, Japan or even China depending on Kim's whim that week, or whatever rumor is spreading through their armed forces.

They're like a mix of the worse of the Stalin/Khrushchev nuke-first attitude and the amorphous and fractionalized nature of terrorist nuke seekers rolled into one. The best saving grace thusfar is they lack the potential to build reliable delivery systems or anything close to 'high yield'.

This being said, I don't see why we can't bomb their production facilities like we have done to others in Iran and pre-invasion Iraq. One air strike does not a war make, and according to them the war never stopped anyway...
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#12 User is offline   IconOfEvi 

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Posted 28 May 2009 - 12:00 AM

QUOTE (Korona @ May 27 2009, 4:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
They are going nuts right now, threatening war and stuff. This is crazy. The SKs have to call the NKs bluff here, but who knows how they will react to that? They seem pretty pissed off right now.

Yes, actually I'm moderately surprised - but they are still trying to keep ties going on. They still have the Kaesong or whatever co-production complex going on (which is a complete failure btw). Thankfully, the new PM is much more hardline than the old guy (bad with names), Mr Sunshine doctrine - if it wasn't for him, the North might have collapsed already.

South Korea for example is finally joining the ship searching works
Whats odd is that they are doing this knowing the North's threat that their participation is tantamount to a declaration of war



QUOTE (spyvspy @ May 27 2009, 12:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I guess SK could always surrender to China first, as a preemptive measure. NK is just China's starved, dehydrated, rabid rottweiler tied to a tree in the front yard, and they know damned well it needs the one bullet solution.

Well yes, they could, but as you said, the PRC uses North Korea as its starved rabid Rottweiler - its their buffer state. There is a reason they intervened when we reached the Yalu last time.


QUOTE (Acevetren @ May 27 2009, 2:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You just wait though even with China's support the western nations will just glass em. Britain,USA, Canada, France,and Germany will blow that little communist piece of shit out of the water. laugh.gif They only stand a chance if the Russia intervenes which I suspect is unlikely. That Kim Jon IL or what ever is one big communist prick! laugh.gif

Just...no. Russia has neither the capability nor the desire to intervene. In case you forgot, China does.


QUOTE (BlckWyerve @ May 27 2009, 11:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Why are asians so crazy

And thus, the crux of the whole argument.




Also, things are getting hot.
They've abandoned the truce, and this isn't front page news O_O?

This post has been edited by IconOfEvi: 28 May 2009 - 12:00 AM

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#13 User is offline   dave1001 

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Posted 28 May 2009 - 09:08 AM

QUOTE (IconOfEvi @ May 27 2009, 4:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
They've abandoned the truce, and this isn't front page news O_O?

it doesn't deserve front-page status since it's nothing more than continued dickery by an irrational state and it has no practical effect - the ceasefire line is still guarded and an attack on the South would still be suicidal.
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#14 User is offline   IconOfEvi 

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Posted 28 May 2009 - 09:11 AM

Its not that what bugs me - its that news on the Cannes Film Festival was deemed more important O_o.

EDIT - aaaaaaand, a rare moment of escalation in progress:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8071175.stm

This post has been edited by IconOfEvi: 28 May 2009 - 09:12 AM

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#15 User is offline   Count von Phoib 

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Posted 28 May 2009 - 09:22 AM

The ship-searching may be a sort of bait.

"We will immediately respond with a powerful military strike."

No nation will accept shelling Seoul as a reasonable response to SK ships enforcing a UN resolution.
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#16 User is offline   IconOfEvi 

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Posted 28 May 2009 - 10:03 AM

North Korea is desperate for war at this point - their people are starving. The industry is desolated, sold off so people could get something to eat. Hell, even army privates are starving now. People are fleeing and defecting in record numbers. The whole apparatus is falling apart. They know only a war, or threat of war can save them at this point.

China knows it too.
related article:
http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/25/kim-jong-...orth-korea.html
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#17 User is offline   Rattuskid 

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Posted 28 May 2009 - 01:31 PM

Er... no. It's desperate to look intimidating. If they were to launch a war, they'd just fucking do it. They don't have to prove anything to the international community first. They wouldn't need a 'reason' like a democracy, like we did in 2003 when Bush asked for Saddam to step down.

It may be for internal reasons.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8068567.stm

Essentially, the more they snarl and bark now, the less likely we are to deal with them in a way that destabilizes them, and the more likely we are to deliver rhetoric which rallies them while they prop up their next in line for succession of the nation.

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#18 User is offline   Korona 

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Posted 28 May 2009 - 08:48 PM

I'd hate to be living in Seoul right now. It's like being the hostage in the negotiations with a mad gunman.

I dunno that I agree with the assessment that Beijing is some dastardly mastermind here orchestrating a cunning plan to foster NK as a bulldog. Firstly NK is not a good neighbour to have on ones border. Secondly, do the Chinks really need a buffer zone on that border? It's hardly a great way to invade China. The huge tracts of land in Manchuria combined with the Red Army are surely good enough?

I would suggest that a better way to look at the Chinese behaviour is as a manifestation of their very firm belief in stability. If NK collapsed the stream of refugees would become a tide. If you look at the status quo, it's not great but presumably the Chinese think that an NK that doesn't collapse is less likely to start a war than one that is on the brink and desperate. Chinese stability itself is so dependant on a stable economy that I think they would do almost anything to avoid a conflict on their doorstep.
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#19 User is offline   Acevetren 

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Posted 28 May 2009 - 09:05 PM




QUOTE (Acevetren @ May 27 2009, 2:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You just wait though even with China's support the western nations will just glass em. Britain,USA, Canada, France,and Germany will blow that little communist piece of shit out of the water. laugh.gif They only stand a chance if the Russia intervenes which I suspect is unlikely. That Kim Jon IL or what ever is one big communist prick! laugh.gif

Just...no. Russia has neither the capability nor the desire to intervene. In case you forgot, China does.


How the fuck does Russia not have the capability to intervene? They are like the second biggest superpower.

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#20 User is offline   Goose 

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Posted 29 May 2009 - 02:25 AM

'fraid not. Russia's military is incredibly poor, they're still using alot of outdated coldwar hardware, and their annual defense budget is less than the UK's, and we're struggling to keep our heads above water with a smaller force.
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